The Asypow S(plus) Library for Asymptotic Power Calculations

The asypow library consists of routines written in the S language that calculate power and related quantities utilizing asymptotic methods. A paper describing these methods with examples is in preparation [1]. Two methods are available. The likelihood ratio method (LR) is described in [2]. Another general method appears recently in [3]; and we designate it the SMO method after the initials of the authors.

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Ski areas, weather and climate: Time series models for New England case studies

Wintertime warming trends experienced in recent decades, and predicted to increase in the future, present serious challenges for ski areas and whole regions that depend on winter tourism. Most research on this topic examines past or future climate-change impacts at yearly to decadal resolution, to obtain a perspective on climate-change impacts. We focus instead on local-scale impacts of climate variability, using detailed daily data from two individual ski areas. Our analysis fits ARMAX (autoregressive moving average with exogenous variables) time series models that predict day-to-day variations in skier attendance from a combination of mountain and urban weather, snow cover and cyclical factors. They explain half to two-thirds of the variation in these highly erratic series, with no residual autocorrelation. Substantively, model results confirm the backyard hypothesis that urban snow conditions significantly affect skier activity; quantify these effects alongside those of mountain snow and weather; show that previous-day conditions provide a practical time window; find no monthly effects net of weather; and underline the importance of a handful of high-attendance days in making or breaking the season. Viewed in the larger context of climate change, our findings suggest caution regarding the efficacy of artificial snowmaking as an adaptive strategy, and of smoothed yearly summaries to characterize the timing-sensitive impacts of weather (and hence, high-variance climate change) on skier activity. These results elaborate conclusions from our previous annual-level analysis. More broadly, they illustrate the potential for using ARMAX models to conduct integrated, dynamic analysis across environmental and social domains

The Old Chestnut Explored: Thoughts About the Survival of Casner\u27s \u3cem\u3eCases and Text on Property\u3c/em\u3e Long Past Its Prime

The pedagogy of the Casner text-now often imitated-assumes a fractional approach to private property. The Hohfeldian bundle of rights rational for allocation and justification of property interests did not begin with Casner or Leach, but the fact that the first edition of the book bearing the combined authors\u27 names appeared in 1947 and has been in continuous use since that time is a testament to the insight of its writers and to its timelessness. That the structure and themes of the text have been followed in a host of casebooks is, no doubt, the sincerest form of flatter

Revisiting Local Campaign Effects: An Experiment Involving Literature Mail Drops in the 2007 Ontario Election

An invariant feature of constituency election campaigns is the literature mail drop, usually a one-page leaflet or card left at the door profiling the candidate and appealing for electoral support. In this article, we report on a field experiment designed to assess the effects of such mail drops. The experiment was conducted during the 2007 Ontario provincial election campaign in the constituency of Cambridge and entailed distributing literature for the Green party candidate in that constituency. After randomly assigning constituency polls to treatment and control groups, and delivering the Green candidate’s partisan literature only to the selected treatment group polls, we compared the candidate’s support levels in the treated polls with those in the control group. Our research detected a modest effect associated with the literature drop. The effect was largely limited to constituency neighbourhoods fitting at least part of the Green party’s traditional demographic, that is, those with higher than average socio-economic status

Russian Federation - The myth of monopoly : a new view of industrial structure in Russia

Discussion of economic reform in the Russian Federation is colored by the conventional view of Russia's industrial structure. Both in Russia and in the West, Russian industry is characterized as very large enterprises operating in highly concentrated industries. The authors challenge the conventional view. They assess Russian industrial concentration by comparing the Russian industrial structure (as revealed in the 1989 Soviet Census of Industry) with that in the United States and other countries. They find that very large firms are more prevalent in the United States than in Russia. This empirical fact suggests that planners economized on the costs of central economic coordination not by building unusually large enterprises, but by not building very small enterprises. Their most important finding: that there is little aggregate or industry concentration at the national level in Russia. Monopolies and oligopolies actually account for only a small share of national employment and production. Instead, barriers to competition in Russia arise as a result of highly segmented product markets. In large part, this segmentation can be viewed as a legacy of central planning. Under the prior regime, enterprises were highly isolated, divided alone both ministerial and geographical lines. Presently, these barriers are reinforced by some features of the transitional environment that continue to undermine the efficient distribution of goods. The authors conclude that the traditional policy remedies appropriate for problems of concentration (such as antitrust policy and import competition) may be ill-advised or inadequate for addressing problems of imperfect competition in the Russian economy. They argue instead that improving the distribution system and other market infrastructure that supports trade and facilitating the entry of new firms should be the most critical elements of competition policy in Russia.Microfinance,Small Scale Enterprise,Private Participation in Infrastructure,Banks&Banking Reform,Water and Industry